Report: Coastal flooding could threaten 1.4 million homes by midcentury

By 2050, more than 2.5 million Americans could be living in areas at risk of a severe coastal flood, including tens of thousands along North Carolina’s coastline, according to a new analysis released Wednesday by Climate Central.

The nonprofit climate research group used federal elevation and population data to map the land, homes and people that could be within reach of a 100-year coastal flood event, defined as a flood with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The projections are based on a middle-of-the-road climate scenario that assumes global carbon pollution is reduced in line with Paris Agreement targets — though so far, those goals have not been met.

“We looked at the people and homes at risk of sea level rise and coastal flooding that’s going to increase in the coming decades,” said Kelly van Baalen, project manager on Climate Central’s sea level rise team. “We found 1.4 million homes are currently situated in that risk zone for the 100-year flood in 2050.”

North Carolina ranks in the top 10 states for coastal flood exposure. In Hyde County, for example, more than 30% of residents could be living in flood-prone areas by 2050, according to the analysis.

Van Baalen said the risk is greatest in places where sea level rise is accelerating and large populations are concentrated near the coast, including areas like the Outer Banks, Morehead City, and Wilmington.

“We’ve seen homes fall into the ocean and roads wash out,” van Baalen said. “This report shows that more people, especially older adults, are going to be dealing with that kind of risk.”

According to the report, nearly 540,000 Americans over the age of 65 live in areas projected to flood by midcentury. That population accounts for 22% of those at risk, despite making up only 16% of the total population studied.

“Older adults can be more vulnerable in a flood. They may have mobility issues that make evacuation more dangerous, and their homes are often harder to modify with things like stairs or elevated foundations,” van Baalen said. “Plus, many retirees have much of their wealth tied up in a coastal home that may be at risk.”

Beyond the personal toll, rising waters could have ripple effects across the state and nation, van Baalen warned. “A lot of our infrastructure is on the coast: ports, transportation, supply chains,” she said. “Disruption there can impact everyone, no matter where they live.”

Climate Central’s interactive Coastal Risk Finder allows users to explore sea level rise and flood risk by city or county, including demographic breakdowns and local adaptation efforts.

The group hopes the data helps communities make smarter decisions, from raising homes and building sea walls to restoring natural flood buffers like wetlands.

“We still have time to act,” van Baalen said. “The sea level rise we’re seeing through 2050 is mostly locked in due to past emissions. But what we do now will shape the second half of this century — whether we face manageable change or something far more disruptive.”

She added that flood risk is not limited to those with beachfront property.

“Even if your house isn’t on the map, you can still be impacted by storm surge or heavy rainfall,” she said. “And rising insurance rates, which are sometimes subsidized by taxpayers, affect all of us.”

The Climate Central report includes guides for individuals and case studies on how different states are adapting. The organization does not offer policy recommendations but encourages residents and planners to use the information as a tool for decision-making.

“We want to empower people with knowledge,” van Baalen said. “This gives us the chance to prepare and choose the future we want.”